Nvidia Doesn't Need to Buy the Gold Mines When Everyone's Buying Shovels

• Sources: TechCrunch, Reuters
• Verdict: keep
• Why: The shovel seller decided it doesn't need equity when everyone's buying shovels anyway. And OpenAI's financials are the real reveal.

The L-takes

The headline. Jensen Huang said Nvidia probably won't make more investments in OpenAI or Anthropic. They already put ~$30B into OpenAI and ~$10B into Anthropic. Those might be the final investments.

The real reason. Nvidia wins either way. OpenAI and Anthropic both run massive GPU clusters. The real money is selling chips, not owning shares. The shovel seller doesn't need equity if everyone is buying shovels. And right now everyone is buying Nvidia chips.

Analysts aren't buying the explanation. Huang cited IPOs as a reason — big companies can still invest before IPOs. The original $100B OpenAI deal already got scaled back. The confusion is less "AI is collapsing" and more "what exactly is Nvidia trying to avoid?" Possible theories: antitrust scrutiny, conflicts with other AI customers, or they simply don't need the equity anymore.

The OpenAI financials that actually matter:

• 2025: ~$13B revenue, ~$22B spending, -$9B loss (spent $1.70 for every $1 earned)
• 2026 projected: ~$25B revenue, ~$39B spending, -$14B loss
• Internal projections show losses continuing until ~2028, profitability around ~2030
• Compute spending through 2030: ~$600B

The L: OpenAI is the most revenue-successful AI company on Earth and it's still burning $14B a year. The strategy is "spend absurd money now, dominate AI, make profits later" — which is exactly what every failed tech company said before the dot-com bust. Nvidia looked at those numbers and decided selling GPUs was a better deal than owning equity.